Car Hunt

New vs used — 7-year cost of ownership

Total cost = depreciation + loan interest + insurance + maintenance + fuel, over a 7-year hold. Rates reflect a “higher for longer” view (7.199999999999999% new / 8.9% used APR), gas at $3.6/gal on a high-oil view. The new car’s first-year depreciation cliff (~20%) is the single biggest line against it; high rates widen the gap because you finance a bigger balance.

Generated 2026-09-01 from scripts/car_buy_math.py. Assumes $4,000 down, 12,000 mi/yr, Idaho 6% sales tax + $500 doc fee. Excludes registration (~$140/yr, same for all). A RAV4 Hybrid (~39 mpg) cuts its fuel line ~$4,600 → cheapest in the table.

The verdict

At ordinary financing (7%+ new, ~9% used), the 2–3-year-old used car wins: past the depreciation cliff, still near the powertrain warranty, good-era CVT. Buying new that way costs ~$3.5–7k more over 7 years.

But the manufacturer APR changes the answer. With Subaru’s 1.9% / 36-month promo, a new Forester’s 7-year cost drops to ~$42k — the cheapest Forester line in the table, because saving ~7 points of interest more than offsets the extra depreciation. The catch is the payment: ~$906/mo for three years instead of ~$509 for the used one. A CPO Forester at ~4.29% splits the difference — ~$43k all-in, ~$486/mo, with warranty and clean history. See the incentives note below — those rates are real but move monthly and need confirming with a Boise ZIP.

Manufacturer incentives — Sept 2026

Gathered 2026-09-01, mostly from search-indexed copies of manufacturer / dealer pages (subaru.com and buyatoyota.com blocked direct access). Treat as a starting point: enter ZIP 83704 at subaru.com and buyatoyota.com/pacificnorthwest and read the offer fine print for exact trims and end dates. Idaho is in the Pacific-NW Toyota region; Subaru captive financing is national.

No customer or bonus cash on any of the three volume models right now — all are supply-constrained — so there’s no APR-vs-rebate tradeoff to weigh. You take the subvented rate or bring your own financing. The only stackable cash is $500 military / $500 recent-grad (Toyota) and $500 educator (Subaru).

“0% down” is just the standard structure on these APR deals — not a discount. The lever that matters is the rate: 1.9% on a new Forester vs. ~9% on a used one is worth ~$5,000 of interest over the loan, which is why the promo row beats the used rows in the table above — if you can carry the 36-month payment.

Are CVTs bad?

They earned the reputation, then mostly fixed it — and Subaru’s history is worse than average.

• Early CVTs (2010–2017) genuinely failed. Nissan’s Jatco units overheated and died by 60–90k miles; warranties were extended under lawsuit pressure.
• Subaru’s TR580 (2014–2018 Forester/Outback/Impreza) shuddered and hesitated. The Yaeger v. Subaru class-action settlement extended the CVT warranty to 10 yr / 100,000 mi on those years — a tell that the base coverage wasn’t holding. Replacement cost when they go: $4,000–8,000.
• The second-gen unit (2019+, TR580 revised + TR690) has a much better field record. Shudder complaints drop off sharply after 2019; no class action.
• Honda’s CVT has been quietly reliable since ~2016. Toyota hedged with a physical launch gear, then dropped the CVT entirely on the 2019+ RAV4 (8-speed automatic).

Bottom line: a 2020–2023 Forester is a reasonable buy and the transmission shouldn’t keep you up at night — change the CVT fluid at 60k even though Subaru calls it “lifetime.” Want the worry gone entirely? That’s exactly what a 2019+ RAV4 or a 4Runner buys you.

The shortlist — camping + light offroading

The foothills use case (washboard gravel, forest two-track, ruts, snow — not rock crawling) rewards ground clearance and a lockable AWD/4WD mode. A road-biased crossover will scrape and spin.

Drop for real dirt: the base (non-Wilderness) Forester — 8.7" clearance is fine for a snowy driveway and light gravel, but the road-tuned suspension and all-season tires give up quickly on a rutted forest road.

Top picks — Boise metro, 2026-09-08

Hand-picked from the full listings below. Every one still needs a $150 pre-purchase inspection at an independent shop before money changes hands.

Subaru Forester

Her pick. All 2019+ = the reliable CVT era. The CarMax 2020 Touring you liked has sold — here's the refreshed board.

Toyota RAV4

The no-CVT compromise that still fits the off-road brief. (No Cars.com listings surface for RAV4 here — market data unavailable.)

Toyota 4Runner

His pick. Body-on-frame, no CVT, holds value like nothing else. ~17 mpg is the running cost. In reach means a 2017-2018 Limited around $29-31k, or stretching for lower miles.

Honda Passport

Underrated value. No CVT (9-speed auto), big cargo box, Honda V6.

All listings — Boise metro

Scraped 2026-09-09 by scripts/car_finder.py. Sorted best-value first within each model. Deal rating and “$ vs. market” come from Cars.com’s price analysis; Craigslist listings carry no mileage or deal data.

Toyota Certified Pre-Owned

Toyota’s CPO (TCUV) adds a 7yr/100k powertrain warranty from the original in-service date, a 12mo/12k comprehensive warranty, a 160-point inspection, and a guaranteed clean title — no rebuilt/branded cars can be certified. Worth a modest premium on a RAV4 (newer 8-speed auto); worth less on a 4Runner, whose drivetrain rarely fails — there you’re really buying the clean-history guarantee. Compare the out-the-door price delta vs. a comparable non-certified unit, not the badge.

Local Toyota dealer sites (Peterson, Steve’s Hometown) are JavaScript apps the scraper can’t read, and Larry H. Miller Toyota Boise has closed — so check dealer CPO inventory directly. Watch for fake badges: a “Certified” tag on a listing aggregator sometimes means a third-party warranty (e.g. “Ford Blue Advantage”), not genuine Toyota Certified. Confirm the listing says “Toyota Certified Used Vehicle, backed by Toyota.”

Facebook Marketplace

FB Marketplace has no API and can’t be scraped reliably — but it’s where the private-party Subarus actually are. Saved searches (100 mi around Boise, logged in):

Test drive

Before you go

• Ask for a cold car — arrange to arrive before it’s been started that day. A warmed-up engine hides the tells (startup rattle, smoke, rough idle).
• Line up two or three in one day. Back-to-back is the only way to feel the difference — impressions fade fast.
• She drives first and longest. She’s the primary driver — seat fit, visibility, driving position, and where the controls fall matter more than anything on paper.
• Bring Grandpa (the mechanic) and an OBD2 Bluetooth reader ($20). Plug it in even with no warning light: pull stored/pending codes and check that the readiness monitors all say “ready” — several “not ready” means codes were recently cleared to drop a light before the sale.
• Drive 25+ minutes: surface streets, a full-throttle highway on-ramp, rough pavement, and tight parking-lot circles both directions. Windows down the first few minutes to hear the drivetrain, then test the A/C.
• CarMax offers a 24-hour test drive on most cars — use it for the Touring so she can live with it overnight.
• Photograph everything: VIN, odometer, all four tire DOT date codes, any damage.

What you two drive for

• Full-throttle merge, once. Any hesitation, rpm flare, or shudder is a flag.
• Firm brake from 45 in a straight line — no pulling, no pedal pulsing (warped rotors), no ABS chatter on dry pavement.
• Hold 65–70 on the highway — no steering-wheel vibration (wheels/balance/bent rim), no wandering (alignment), no wind roar (failed seal or prior bodywork).
• Lift off the gas on a downhill — listen for a driveline clunk.
• Every button: A/C blows genuinely cold, heat, all windows, sunroof, heated seats, CarPlay/screen, backup camera, all four door locks, cruise, wipers, rear defrost.
• Nose test: musty = water intrusion (lift the floor mats and the spare-tire cover and feel for damp); sweet syrup smell = coolant leak.
• Park on a hill, set the brake — confirm it actually holds.

Forester — the CVT drive

• Accelerate smoothly 20 → 45 mph on light-to-moderate throttle. It should feel rubber-bandy but seamless. Any shudder, judder, or a “slipping / searching” sensation is the classic failing-CVT sign — walk away.
• Stop-and-go creep: ease forward from a dead stop several times. Feel for a hesitation or a “catch” before it engages.
• Engage X-Mode (button by the shifter) — confirm the dash indicator lights.
• EyeSight on the highway: adaptive cruise engages and holds a gap; lane-keep nudges the wheel; no EyeSight fault light after startup.
• Slight side-to-side shake at idle is normal for the boxer engine. A rhythmic miss or a top-end tick is not.

4Runner — the truck drive

• The float-y, trucky ride is normal — don’t mistake it for worn shocks. But after a speed bump it should settle in one or two bounces, not keep bobbing.
• Shift into 4-Hi (rolling slowly or stopped — it’s part-time on SR5/TRD): dash light confirms, no grinding. Shift back to 2WD and confirm no binding or clunk on pavement.
• TRD trims: in a lot, test the locking rear diff (needs 4-Lo), Crawl Control, and Multi-Terrain Select — each should activate and indicate.
• Power rear window (the glass that drops into the tailgate) — cycle it fully up and down. It’s a known, pricey failure point.
• The 5-speed auto revs higher on the highway (~2,400 rpm at 75) — that’s the old gearbox, not a problem. Shifts should be smooth with no flare between gears.
• Listen for a driveline vibration or drone at 40–50 mph (driveshaft / carrier bearing).

For Grandpa — the model-specific spots

He’ll know what a tired car feels like better than any list. These are the quirks specific to these models that might not come up if he hasn’t worked on them:

• Forester — oil consumption. The FB25 boxer on some 2019–21 cars burns a quart per 1,000–1,200 mi. Check the dipstick cold; ask to come back in a week and recheck. Ask for oil-change records — short intervals suggest the owner was managing it.
• Forester — CVT fluid. Subaru calls it “lifetime”; it isn’t. Has it ever been dropped and filled? Fluid should be reddish, not brown or burnt-smelling.
• Forester — wheel bearings and rear lateral links. Droning hum that changes as you sway the car = bearing. Check the rear subframe and lateral-link bushings for rot (Idaho road salt).
• Forester — windshield. Subaru glass plus EyeSight recalibration runs $1,000+. A chipped one is a bargaining chip.
• 4Runner — frame rust. Less of an issue in dry Idaho than the salt belt, but still: probe the frame rails, especially around the rear spring hangers and the crossmember, and look for fresh undercoating hiding scale.
• 4Runner — KDSS (if equipped): look for hydraulic fluid weeping at the valve body under the vehicle. A working system corners noticeably flatter.
• 4Runner — the 1GR-FE V6 is chain-driven and famously tough; no known engine or 5-speed-auto failure modes. Front diff / CV boots and the secondary air-injection system (pre-2016) are the spots.
• Both — tires: matched brand, even wear across all four. A mismatched set on an AWD/4WD car means neglect and possibly a chewed-up center diff or transfer case.
• Both — CarFax / title: clean title, service at real intervals, one or two owners, no gap where it might have sat wrecked.
• A lift inspection at an independent shop ($120–150) is still worth it even with Grandpa along — a second set of eyes and a rack you don’t have in a seller’s driveway.